Perspectives on Various Issues of Interest

Don't Lose Your Head

Nanotechnology and Quality

Nanotechnology deals with arranging particles on the atomic scale. The United States' National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) website defines nanotechnology as "the understanding and control of matter at dimensions of roughly 1 to 100 nanometers, where unique phenomena enables novel applications." According to the May 2007 issue of the International Nanotechnology Companies Business Directory, more than 1,700 companies in 47 nations are reportedly pursuing the promise of nanotechnology. Many of the companies specialize in business-to-business products, such as specialized nanoparticulates made of metals and ceramics, nanotubes, nanowires and nanocages made of these materials, and imaging and tooling equipment designed for the nanoscale. Some companies directly involved with business-to-consumer products are using nanotechnology to improve the rain repelling capability of automotive glass, to enhance skin condition with highly penetrating moisturizer, and to purify air with supercharged oxidizing photons.

Quality practitioners and researchers can use design for experiments, statistical process control, Six Sigma and ISO 9001 certification knowledge to make strong contribution to nanotechnology.

Options for Low Emission Fuels

1. Today, approximately 390,000 Americans own Prius. Although hugely successful by means of hybrid technology, it is not clear how much potential there is in the hybrid market.
2. In 2005, Ford had announced that it will be building 250,000 hybrids by 2010, but doesn’t seem to have the same goal anymore.
3. The problem with the logic of hybrids as a solution to global warming is that their fuel efficiency can soon be offset by the increase in global car ownership.
4. Ethanol, presents one option for petroleum replacement. It currently accounts for 3.5% of American fuel consumption, but is growing by 25% a year owing to heavy subsidies. When the oil prices peak, the payback from an ethanol plant is as low as 11 months. However, there are four problems with corn ethanol:
   1. The market is limited because although any car can take E10 fuel (10% ethanol), only 6m out of America’s 237m cars and trucks are “flex-fuel” vehicles that can take E85 (85% ethanol). Converting a car costs only $200 but invalidates the guarantee. American car manufacturers are aiming for half of its output to be “flex-fuel” by 2012.
   2. Although at the pump corn ethanol is competitive with gasoline, America’s subsidies cost taxpayers somewhere between $5.5 billion and $7.3 billion a year. High tariffs are restricting the import of cheap Brazilian ethanol made from sugar cane.
   3. Corn ethanol is not very green and some people think that the energy used in growing corn result in more emissions than it saves. It is argued that a better bet may be cellulosic ethanol – ethanol that can be made out of straw, switchgrass, wood chips – pretty much anything with cellulose in it.
   4. It is less energy intensive than petrol, so you get fewer miles per gallon. Due to this reason, BP is putting its money (along with Du Pont) into a different fuel, biobutanol, which is more energy-intensive than ethanol.
5. Although there was excitement around hydrogen fuel cells in the late 1990s but the hopes that the technology will be in the market early in this decade were disappointed. Shell, which is taking hydrogen seriously, is about to open its first filling station in California. It has one already in Washington D.C. to service ten cars, and another in Iceland, for three buses. According to Shell’s Duncan Macleod, hydrogen cars cost around $1million dollars each to build. At the pump, hydrogen costs $5 a kilo – about the same, in terms of mileage, as current petrol prices.
6. GM is working on battery technology. It unveiled Chevrolet Volt in 2007, which has both a battery and combustion engine. The technology got good reviews although it is uncertain when commercial production will begin.
7. In 2006, Elon Musk, the South African born entrepreneur who started Paypal, unveiled the Tesla, an electric sports car, which plugs into the wall and stores the energy in a lithium-ion battery. The car is however very expensive and the plans for work on the budget version will begin in 2008.  The maximum driving range is 250 miles.

Source: The Economist, June 2^nd 2007. (“The drive for low emissions” pp. 26-28)

End of Oil Age

On March 8, 1956 Dr. M. King Hubbert predicted that oil production in the United States' "lower 48" states would crest between 1965 and 1971 and that global production would peak about the year 2000. The prediction proved right. In 1970, oil production in the lower 48 states reached its peak of 10.6 million barrels per day, and it never produced that much oil again. Looking over the span of 1930-2005 one observed that:

    - In 1930, 10 billion barrels were discovered and 1.5 billion barrels were consumed.
    - In 1964, 48 billion barrels were discovered and 12 billion barrels were consumed.
    - In 1988, 23 billion barrels were discovered and 23 billion barrels were consumed.
    - In 2005, 6 billion barrels were discovered and 30 billion barrels were consumed.

Source: Taylor, C. L. "Are you ready?" CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly, Quarter 2/2007.

Complexity and Adaptivity in Supply Networks

Today, supply chain management (SCM) involves adapting to changes in a complicated global network of organizations. A typical supply network consists of inter-firm relationships that may connect multiple industries. As a result, supply network decisions often require consideration of a large number of factors from multiple dimensions and perspectives. Two emergent themes that managers frequently encounter when making these decisions are (i) the structural intricacies of their interconnected supply chains and (ii) the need to learn and adapt their organization in a constantly changing environment to ensure its long-term survival. Complex interconnections between multiple suppliers, manufacturers, assemblers, distributors, and retailers are the norm for industrial supply networks. When decision making in these networks is based on noncomplex assumptions (e.g., linearity, a buyer–supplier dyad, sparse connectivity, static environment, fixed and nonadaptive individual firm behavior), problems are often hidden, leaving plenty of room for understanding and improving the underlying processes.

 

Source: Pathak, S., Day, J. M., Nair, A., Sawaya, W., and Kristal, M. 2007. Complexity and Adaptivity in Supply Networks: Building Supply Network Theory Using a Complex Adaptive Systems Perspective. Decision Sciences Journal, Vol. 38, Iss. 4., 547-580.