Radical change is a normal part of society’s evolution. In the past century, there have been radical changes in transportation systems ranging from railroads, to automobiles, to airplanes, to jets, and to space shuttles and space exploration. Radical changes in communication have been driven by telephones, then by radio, television, and related recording devices, and today we see are observing the impact of fiber optics and laser based digital data transport, email, Internet commerce and mobile communications. These radical innovations have changed the basic fabric of society, and greatly enhanced our ability to communicate and share knowledge. Today, countries that could never afford traditional fixed communication infrastructures are adopting advanced wireless communication systems.
While radical innovations are unevenly distributed through time, they are often the drivers of incremental innovations. Radical innovation typically occurs with new technologies and in new markets. New technologies are typically untried in practice, lack critical value chain elements, provide limited product advantages, and lack supporting business models. Radical innovations often create new classes of products or services. The introduction of the heart pacemaker in the 1950s, for example, was dependent upon new battery miniaturization and semiconductor technologies. The market could not be developed until pacemaker performance was safe and reliable for individual users.
Miniature batteries combined with semiconductor technology have since driven a whole new portfolio of innovations like hearing aids, electronic toys, and, when combined with even newer technologies, cell phones and low-cost global positioning systems (GPS). Additional new technologies often stimulate discontinuous product changes that address existing markets. For example, the “charge coupled device” or CCD allowed for the miniaturization of video cameras. While the development costs and risks associated with Sony’s 16-year CCD development R&D program were great, Sony’s financial returns for being first-to-market allowed the company to recover all of its development costs within its first year of introduction. Sony’s miniaturization strategy ultimately resulted in the development of the hand-sized PalmCorder. Once patent protection expires and “copycat” products are introduced, price competition stimulates market growth and eventual market saturation. Today, new nanotechnologies are accelerating a new phase of miniaturizations including the miniaturization of rockets for space exploration. New light weight, high strength nanotechnology materials are expected to reduce energy requirements for most transportation systems. New combinations of technologies, including computers-on-a-chip and wireless or Internet-based communication, are driving more discontinuous and radical innovations.
Unlike evolutionary or incremental innovations, radical innovations typically stimulate the creation of new markets and entry of new competitors. Players within established markets find that existing capabilities and infrastructures are seldom applicable to radical innovations. Instead, radical innovations require new infrastructures and capabilities. Such radical changes are called paradigm shifts.
While new paradigms stimulate the development of new product-market opportunities, they also require new strategies and capabilities. This raises questions about the nature of such strategies. An integrated view of paradigm shifts and competitive priorities poses the following important questions: (i) How should firms manage their competitive priorities while crossing the chasm that separate two paradigms?
Even though a new paradigm may not have open competition, competitive priorities are still relevant for strategies to cross the chasm between paradigms. In fact, competitive strategies exist across technological paradigms, since existing strategies are being threatened by the new technological paradigms. Each paradigm has its own life cycle of development, with a continuing sequence of competitive priorities leading to continuous improvements. The performance of existing competitors impacts on the ability of firms with new paradigms from bridging the competitive market chasm, i.e., developing a strategy and capabilities for the paradigm that outperforms existing paradigms. Hence, in the context of paradigm shifts, it is important to understand that competitive priorities are critical in bridging the chasm.
To cross the chasm, a paradigm’s success strongly depends on its existing capabilities and competitive performance. This means that quality and cost metrics must first provide the new paradigm with a significant advantage over incumbent paradigms. This is akin to advancing the price/performance frontier. Accordingly, the need to focus on basic competitive performance suggests that quality, dependability, and cost may be critical in bridging the chasm. Flexibility appears to be a priority for maturing markets with more standardized technologies, such as Dell applies to computers. Such flexibility is seldom a competitive factor in new business. Quality remains the most important priority and reliability remains entry level priorities. Cost then sets the new paradigm on a growth vector. The figure below provides a conceptual model of paradigm shifts and their competitive priorities.
Competitive priorities between paradigms must be addressed in the same fashion as competitive priorities within established paradigms. Initially, the success of a new product-market strategy will depend on its competitive value, based on its quality and reliability characteristics, and then its cost. Once a new paradigm becomes accepted, its competitive success hinges on a steady stream of innovation that sequentially and cumulatively improves competitive quality, dependability, cost and flexibility.
Let's consider an example from the automotive industry as a case in point. Ford’s initial success with the Model T had nothing to do with flexibility. However, flexibility had everything to do with GM’s ability to take industry leadership. While fuel cells may become the dominant paradigm for future vehicle powertrains, they must first achieve competitive quality, dependability, and cost with internal combustion engines. Check out the TED video (recorded in 2005) in which Larry Burns (the former corporate vice president of R&D for GM) introduced GM's Sequel:
For GM’s Sequel car to become a feasible entry into the market, platform must prove itself as a viable family car. Toyota believes that will take until 2030. GM’s goal was 2010, but it has yet to see the light of the day.
Fuel cell powertrains will require a new infrastructure, as with the automobile industry of the early 1900s, to ensure the availability of fuel and services. With a basic infrastructure in place, competitive priorities for operational capabilities will be driven by increased competition over quality, dependability, cost and flexibility. Within the new fuel cell paradigm, these competitive priorities will develop and grow in multiple market segments.
Quality acts as an initial competitive priority for strategies to cross the chasm between new and established paradigms. Specifically, quality investments lead to improvement in product and process quality which reduces rework and failures. Meanwhile, quality improvements reduce inspection costs and improve delivery dependability. These cost savings can then be channeled into innovation activities that proactively support competitive priorities as well as improved flexibility and variety as markets mature.
Managing competitive priorities and capabilities across and within paradigms will be the challenge of tomorrow’s executives. Firms must drive product performance up the S-curve by addressing competitive priorities in the sequence of quality, dependability, cost, and flexibility in both existing and new paradigms. Each priority becomes the foundation for the next priority, and any neglect in established priorities will only weaken the sand cone. Beginning with quality improvement, a firm can then improve delivery dependability, cost, and flexibility. Meanwhile, the resources resulting from quality-driven cost savings can further support activities that move new or existing technologies up the S-curve. Competition between S-curves in established paradigms and S-curves in new paradigms determine whether a firm can cross the chasm of market acceptance. Subsequently, new paradigms will continue to address the competitive priorities to higher levels of performance. Here are some key takeaways:
- Competitive priorities in an industry require the application of a variety of management practices.
- Competitive priorities at the productivity frontier will be cumulative and integrated for both new and old paradigms.
- Quality, reliability and cost are critical priorities when bridging the chasm between competitive paradigms.
*Joint work with Professor Bill Boulton