The vulnerabilities of global supply chains were exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this post I first consider the geopolitical landscape and disruptions in PPE supplies by reflecting on the conditions before the pandemic until the time when countries started to take steps toward managing the crisis. Next, I discuss prevailing contextual conditions, future demand and supply trends, and directions for risk management through government interventions, public-private partnerships and organizational best practices.
It is instructive to start from pre-COVID time to understand the distribution of various PPE products and global demand. Before COVID-19, the global PPE market was worth roughly $60 billion. PPE products are destined for numerous different economic sectors such as healthcare, mining and construction. According to an April 2020 analysis by the Asian Development Bank, the healthcare sector PPE market alone was estimated at $2.5 billion in 2018 as shown below where the revenue is in $ millions.
As for 2020, the United States (US) was a major manufacturer, accounting for 20 % of the global production of every category apart from gloves.
Source: Mordor Intelligence (updated in November 2020 ), Statista research department, COVID-19 PPE demand and supply perspectives, Industry experts interviews (November 2020)
Despite being a major PPE producer, the US relied heavily on imports to meet local demand.
Source: ITC Trade Map
The global trade network in 2018 shows high geographic and regional concentration in the PPE supply chain. There are three regional clusters: Asia, Europe, and the US. Among countries making these products, China (PRC) clearly plays a central role in the trade network (except for gloves where countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia are dominant due to abundance of rubber).
Source: ADB calculations using data from United Nations. Commodity Trade Database.
In fact, PPE concentration in Asia has intensified in the past decade or so.
Source: Asian Development Bank (2020)
To counter the supply shortage of PPE during pandemic, several nations had instituted export restrictions. The efficacy of these measures could be debated since they also could have resulted in less optimal investments in new capacity (since manufacturers would take the restricted market into consideration when taking capacity decisions), high burden on public finances (since governments had to provide greater fiscal inducement to encourage domestic manufacturers to increase capacity aimed at the restricted market), and loss of cooperation as well as potential retaliation by nations.
Source: International Trade Center website (in November 2020)
Source: Global trade alert Source: : Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities (2020)
Considering product shipments from China to US, once China was able to control its own pandemic, supply chains for garments, visors, thermometers, gloves, simple masks and N-95 masks linking China to the US adapted very well. The need for gloves in the US market was served by other countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, since the plastic gloves from China are relatively less in demand in the US. Technological sophistication of ventilators made in China also were not compatible with the US needs, which reduced the adaptive ability of this supply chain.
Source: Dallas, M. P., Horner, R., & Li, L. (2021). The mutual constraints of states and global value chains during COVID-19:The case of personal protective equipment. World Development, 139, 105324.
There was indeed a component of luck in that the pandemic in China had eased as it spread to the west. Future pandemics may not reflect such a temporal dynamic. Additionally, the phenomenal increase in the exports of simple masks and N-95 masks could have been a result of mislabeling and customhouse chaos during the pandemic.
The PPE supply chain is faced with several bottlenecks as shown in the following illustrative example.
Medical supplies were delayed due to shipping challenges. Demand for shipping and transportation services had increased significantly, but the labor available to provide these services had reduced. The backlogs and congestion produced significantly delays, uncertainty and cost increases.
To respond to the crisis, several countries boosted their domestic production base. In the US, the Defense Production Act was activated to mobilize domestic industrial base. The EU accelerated joint procurement procedure with 26 member states to ensure supply of medical equipment across Europe. Structural funds were directed to the supply of medical equipment. In India, financial incentives were provided for the production of critical supplies. Digital platform was developed to identify and fill the shortage of critical supplies. Japan provided subsidies for the production of face masks. State-owned firms in China were repurposed to supply medical materials. Loans and subsidies were provided to firms producing critical supplies.
In a survey, over half of respondents expected a significant or somewhat decreased presence of supply chain components in China, while 75 percent expected a significant or moderate increase in the United States. Similar expectations emerged for the European Union, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, for which half of respondents expect an increase in components.
Source: Atlantic Council
44 percent and 53 percent of respondents cited inadequate planning for both near and long-term disruptions as the top vulnerability in their supply chains, respectively. In addition, over 40 percent of respondents listed geographic or regional concentrations as well as bottlenecks and single point dependencies as core vulnerabilities.
Source: Atlantic Council
Over 60 percent of respondents foresee more prioritization of contingency planning and crisis modelling in response to the pandemic’s disruptions. In addition to planning, they ranked location diversification of their supply chains as a top priority, followed by relocating them within the borders of the primary country of operation.
This focus on re- or onshoring due to the growing concern about foreign dependencies and increasing demand for self-sufficiency resulted in several new manufacturing sites being established for the production of PPE products.
Source: Health Industry Distributors Association
Government can play an important in strengthening the PPE supply chain by means of reforms to domestic and international trade rules and agreements. It can take necessary diplomatic, economic, security, trade policy, informational, and other actions. Frequent supply chain review and reforms to make supply chain analyses and actions more effective could help. Government can also help in fostering innovation, developing world-class American manufacturing base and ensuring adequate stockpiles in the future.
Public-private partnership can help with coordinating various aspects within the PPE supply chain. These include establishing policies, incentives, and focused federal procurement guidelines; guiding input, development timelines, and product portfolios; initiating combined exercises and planning efforts; incentivizing emergency essential businesses’ use of federal purchasing vehicles; and enabling vertical and lateral supply chain distribution activities. The partnership can help with managing pricing by assessing and maximizing the value and efficacy of federal investments in latent manufacturing capacity. Increased supply chain visibility and data sharing as well as cost-efficient maintenance of inventories could be part of public-private initiatives. Finally, these partnerships can help maintain a specified level of pandemic preparedness and formalize pandemic preparedness as a condition for participation in federal programs.
Organizations need to recognize that supply chain disruptions are becoming more frequent and severe.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2020
Supply chain pressure is only increasing in recent times as reflected below:
Source: Michigan State University's Supply Chain Pressure Index
Source: New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
Supply-chain leaders believe that the issues by the pandemic will transform supply chains. 73% of respondents in a McKinsey survey indicated that they encountered problems in supplier footprint, 75% faced issues in production and distribution footprints, 85% struggled with insufficient digital technologies, and 48% experienced delays in planning decisions.
Organizations need to understand the bottlenecks along the PPE value chain due to increasing manufacturing capacity. For respirators, supply pressure arises mainly from shortages of melt-blown non woven, a critical ingredient. Supply pressure in for medical masks also arises mainly from shortages of melt-blown non-woven. And for gloves, supply pressure is driven both by nitrile shortages and limited specialist manufacturing capacity
Source: COVID-19 PPE demand and supply perspectives, Industry experts interviews (November 2020)
Consumers and non-healthcare workers will drive surgical mask demand in 2021 before dropping by ~ 40 % p.a. in 2021-25. A significant shift in the weight of global PPE demand will move towards Asia.
Source: Source: Mordor Intelligence (updated in November 2020 ), EPI model, WHO assumptions
According to a McKinsey surveys of global Supply Chain leaders, 93% expect to increase resilience across the supply chain, 90% plan to increase digital supply chain talent across supply chains, and 54% expect changes in supply chain planning after COVID-19. As for measures for resilience, 53% plan to consider dual sourcing, 47% plan to increase inventory of critical supplies, 40% are considering near-shoring and increasing their supply base, and 38% plan to regionalize their supply chains. To improve digital supply chain talent, 70% are planning to resell their supply chain labor force and 55% are considering acquiring new talent from the labor market. For supply chain planning 60% are considering implementing advanced analytics, 58% will consider centralizing supply chain planning, and 50% are going to retail faster sales and operations planning cycle. 11% of the respondents indicated facing budget challenges associated with transforming their supply chains.
Given the importance of resilience among supply chain leaders it is important to consider both resistance and recovery capabilities. Resistance capabilities help avoid and contain disruptions. Recovery capabilities enable stabilization and return to normalcy. Companies need to consider not only risk factors (impact and probability of disruptions), but also uncertainties (known, unknowns and unknown, unknowns) associated with disruptions.
Investment strategies need to be considered to manage disruptions effectively. These investments strategies can be categorized as those related to discovery, information, supply chain design, buffers, operating flexibility, security, and preparedness. Discovery related investment strategies would require investing in the ability to identify potential problems in the supply chain as close to the event occurrence as possible. The types of investments include information technology/information sharing, early warning by supply chain partners, forecasting, demand sensing, monitoring of performance in the supply chain. Investment strategies in information call for improving the quantity, speed, and quality of information flow within the supply chain. These could be facilitated by improved information technology, effective communication, and visibility. Supply chain design investment strategies involve designing and implementing supply chains that can be configured and reconfigured quickly in response to changes within the supply chain. Supply base management and supply base reconfiguration can help in this regard. For buffer related investment strategies organizations need to create excess cushions in the form of inventory, capacity and lead times by considering human resource capacity, human resource capabilities/experience, inventory, operating flexibility, and redundancy. With investments in operating flexibility organizations can create a system that can change either the flow or product specifications in response to supply chain problems. Alternatives for transportation and variable bills of material are examples of such investments. Investment in security can help protect the system from supply chain shocks by creating firewalls, quarantine protocols, and development of strengthened supply chains. Finally, preparedness related investment strategies require designing contingency plans for dealing with potential supply chain shocks and carrying out drills using these plans so that various groups would know what they must do and what their specific responsibilities are. This can be facilitated by investing in planning for contingencies, training/rehearsing, risk assessment and insurance.
Different investment strategies contribute towards different stages of resilience. Avoidance stage is best handled by investment strategies in discovery, information, security and preparedness. Containment can be managed by investments in supply chain design, buffers, operating flexibility, security, and preparedness. Investments in supply chain design, buffers, operating flexibility, and preparedness can also help with stabilization. Finally, the return stage is best managed by investments in operating flexibility and preparedness.
Organizations need to realize that there are several modes of reshoring as shown below. Firms can relocate manufacturing activities performed by wholly-owned offshore facilities to wholly-owned onshore facilities (in-house restoring); can relocate manufacturing activities performed by wholly-owned offshore facilities back to onshore suppliers (restoring for outsourcing); can relocate manufacturing activities performed by offshore suppliers to wholly-owned onshore facilities (reshoring for in-sourcing); and can relocate manufacturing activities performed by offshore suppliers back to onshore suppliers (outsourced reshoring).
Source: Gray et al. (2013)
To be successful, new entrants will need to achieve scale and secure raw materials and specialist machinery. The will also need to acquire technical expertise and quickly build brand strength.
Source: COVID-19 PPE demand and supply perspectives, Industry experts interviews (Nov. 2020)
Organizations need to consider a range of supply (shift away from sole-source contracts), data aggregation and predictive modeling capabilities, understand the price-points for competitiveness, manage quality of products, have built-in redundancies, invest in innovation & reusables, create transparency in their supply chains, and foster talent.