Perspectives on Various Issues of Interest

Thermal management technologies - Supply chain and operational issues

In this post, I cover supply chain and operational issues faced by a small and medium enterprise providing thermal management technology for consumer electronics, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles. I will also allude to actions that are being taken to address supply chain issues. I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on the outlook for small and medium enterprises operating in this space in light of prevailing operational and supply chain challenges.

The thermal management technologies market is evolving rapidly, especially in the case of consumer electronics and lithium batteries use. Increasing adoption of renewable energy resources is the major factor driving the thermal energy storage market with the rapid industrialization across the world has increased the need for continuous power supply, which positively leads to the growth of the overall thermal energy market during the forecast period. Developments in the electronics industry have culminated in a considerable surge in the power densities, which have led to the introduction of smaller, smarter products. These advancements in the industry have led to an increased need for innovative thermal management technologies as they improve the system performance and reliability by avoiding the heat generated by the devices. The electronic packaging trend has increased the performance and reduced the size of the product. This has led to a significant increase in the power consumption of the system. A report from Grand View Research said that the global thermal management technologies market size is expected to reach USD 20.14 billion by 2024, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc. The industry is primarily driven by the growth in the emerging trend of miniaturization of electronic devices and components.

The Grand View research report said: "Advanced technological research is expected to produce more efficient and cost-effective thermal management solutions in the future. The key industry participants are extensively focusing on the development of optimized thermal management solutions that are cost-effective and are applicable across a range of end-use applications. However, the industry is anticipated to witness various issues associated with modularity in designing and reliability of modeling, which are presumed to challenge the growth over the forecast period. Current cooling technologies, standard heat sinks, and fans are rapidly approaching their cooling capacity limit, and thermal management is becoming a critical step in enabling enhanced product functionality. The thermal management software is anticipated to exhibit a significant growth in the near future owing to the increasing adoption of the software heat removal techniques and simulations to reduce moments of peak heat impact and reduce the risk of failure."

Several companies compete in this sector including Arkema S.A., BorgWarner Inc., Continental AG, Dana Limited, Gentherm Incorporated, Grayson, Hanon Systems, Kendrion N.V., Lord Corporation, MAHLE GmbH, Marelli Corporation, Modine Manufacturing Company, NORMA Group, Orion BMS by Ewert Energy Systems, Inc., Polymer Science, Inc., Renesas Electronics Corporation, Robert Bosch GmbH, Samsung SDI Co. ltd., Tesla, Inc., Valeo S.A., VOSS Holding GmbH + Co. KG. and KULR. Given that many of the competitors are OEMs or diversified corporations, focusing on a small and medium enterprise offers some insights into key supply chain pain-points in this sector. I am focusing on the 2022 Q1 experiences of KULR Technology Group, Inc. (ticker symbol: KULR:US) to identify some of the supply chain and operational issues in this sector.

KULR Technology Group, Inc. (ticker symbol: KULR:US), through its subsidiary, KULR Technology Corporation, develops and commercializes thermal management technologies for batteries, electronics, and other components applications in the United States. It offers lithium-ion battery thermal runaway shields; fiber thermal interface materials; phase change material heatsinks; internal short circuit device; KULR battery cell screening and testing automation system and tech safe case; cellcheck; and CRUX cathodes. The company's technologies are used in electric vehicles, energy storage, battery recycling transportation, cloud computing, and 5G communication devices. It sells its products for applications, such as lithium-ion battery energy storage, electric vehicles, 5G communication, cloud computer infrastructure, consumer, and industrial devices. The company was formerly known as KT High-Tech Marketing Inc. and changed its name to KULR Technology Group, Inc. in August 2018. KULR Technology Group, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in San Diego, California.

In 2021 the company increased its revenue by 287% as compared to 2020, mainly reflecting expansion in the commercialization roadmap. Shareholder equity was increased to $16.4 million in the year ending December 31, 2021, from $6.1 million in the year ending December 31, 2020. Gross margins decreased to 54% in the year ending December 31, 2021, from 70% in the year ended December 31, 2020, primarily due to a change in product mix from higher margin products to lower margin services. Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) Expenses in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased to $3.8 million from $768,000 in the corresponding period in 2020 due to the addition of management and operations team members, sales and marketing activities, and non-cash stock-based compensation paid to employees and consultants. R&D expenses in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased to $705,000 from $68,000 in the same period last year, reflecting a combination of new engineering hires, investments in manufacturing automation, new product developments, and research in high-areal capacity battery electrodes and solid-state electrolyte. Loss from operations was $4.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to $677,000 from the same period in 2020. Higher SG&A costs offset higher sales while the gross margin decreased from 76% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 70% in the comparable 2021 quarter, as a result of lower margins on some larger jobs. Net loss for 2021 increased to $11.9 million or a loss of $0.15 per share, compared to a net loss of $2.9 million, or a loss of $0.03 per share in 2020. The Company reported cash balances of $14.9 million as of December 31, 2021, compared to $8.9 million in the same period in 2020. 

In the first quarter of 2022, KULR's sales reduced by 52%, from $418,000 in 2021, to $200,000 this year. General and admin expenses increased to $3.5 million in the first quarter of 2022, from $1.5 million in the corresponding quarter last year. The increase of 136% was due to additional marketing and advertising expenses, consulting fees, and non-cash stock compensation pay for employees and consultants, and the expansion and kiting out of new office facilities. R&D expenses increased 486%, from $123,000 in the first quarter of 2021, to $721,000 in the first quarter of 2022. The loss from operations increased 141%, from $1.5 million for the first quarter of 2021, to $4.1 million for the first quarter of 2022. The increase in the operating loss included 0.9 million increase in non-cash stock-based compensation expense, and increases in payroll, advertising, and marketing expenses, as well as professional fees and research and development projects. The company's net loss increased by 141%, from $1.7 million in the first quarter of 2021, to 4.2 million in the first quarter this year. The net loss per share for the first quarter of 2022 was four cents, compared to two cents for the comparable period last year. As of March 31st, 2021, the company reported cash balances of $10.1 million, compared to $6.2 million on March 31st, 2022. The company raised over $7 million from the issuance of warrants and promissory notes and have established a $15 million standby equity purchase agreement. 

Over the course of past five years, the company's sales, cost of goods sold and profit margins saw major increases in 2018, followed by two years of decline (2019 and 2020) and then an increase in 2022. Except for 2019, the sales, general and administrative expenses have increased as would be expected for a growing company in a growing sector. Similar trend can be observed in R&D expenses to keep up with new innovations and product development.

The company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization are negative.

Supply chain disruptions and action plan

Based on the information available for 2022 Q1 earnings call, the following supplier chain issues and remedial actions were highlighted.

• supply chain disruptions resulted in over $325,000 worth of inventory that couldn't be shipped due to the COVID lockdown
• COVID lockdown that occurred in Shanghai, China at the end of March, left KULR production on the dock with no option to ship.

To respond to these issues primary following initiatives were taken:

• secured $55 million in additional capital to drive two key initiatives
  • securing battery cell supplies of over 500 megawatt hours in energy capacity from tier one battery manufacturers, who are securing the inventory in anticipation of fast-growing demand from key end markets in energy storage and e-mobility.
  • control supply chain and manufacturing costs and reduce disruptions risk by bringing much of the supply chain and production capabilities to North America
• maintain its margins through improvements in logistic flexibility and response times that can offset potential increase in labor costs.
• create a buffer stock of materials, which the company is in negotiations to have its customers take immediately as a hedge against future potential lockdowns
• continue investment in new and automated test and production equipment first implemented in the Q4 of 2021.
• onboarding new tier one battery manufacturers to obtain battery cell supplies of over 500 megawatt hours in energy capacity.
• multisourcing
• geographical diversification of suppliers
• onshoring production in North America
• creating a buffer stock of materials
• developing modular platforms for new product development
• expand operations and support new business

Information on accounts receivables indicate a growth in the past two years. Finished goods inventories and investments in plant, property and equipment have been growing

Past five year balance-sheet:

The accounts payables saw a decline in 2020 but then increased in 2021, reflecting expanding operations.

For the fiscal year ending 2021, the return on assets were -50.60% and return on equity was -105.95%. Total debt to equity ratio was 5.04, current ratio was 6.41 and book value per share was 0.16.

Below, I present the summary of stock market performance:

 

Russia-Ukraine Crisis and the Automotive Wiring Harness Supply Chain

Modern vehicle is much more of a digital device than a mechanical one. Whether it is engine control systems, driver assistance systems or media centers, electronic technology is omnipresent. The advancement towards the "connected car" and autonomous driving is only accelerating this trend. In this increasing presence of electronic systems in a car, the wire harness is one of the key backbone that integrates various digital components, links digital components with  mechanical and structural components, and ensures that the onboard electronic systems get the required power supply. It is also critical for enhancing efficiency and ensuring vehicle safety.

In a typical car, the cables forming the wiring harness stretch more than 3 miles in length and Ukraine is a key supplier in the supply chain for this essential backbone. Leoni AG, a global supplier of wiring harness, has sites covering more than 65,000 miles in the Lviv region in Ukraine. The company employs more than 7,000 people in Ukraine and the cable assemblies made in Ukraine are supplied to LEONI plants in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Belgium, the UK, the USA and Austria. These plants in turn supply the wiring harnesses to car manufacturers such as Opel, Porsche, Volkswagen, Audi and Lamborghini. 

Fujikuru, a Japanese company that make wiring harness, also has sites in Ukraine and supplies cables to car manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Porsche, Audi, and the Czech Republic’s Skoda. Sumitomo Electric Bordnetze with 60:40 split in terms of shareholding between Sumitomo Electric Industries and Sumitomo Wiring Systems has facility in Ternopil, Ukraine. Nexans, headquartered in France, is another such company with sites in Ukraine. Along with these companies other suppliers such as Germany's Forschner, Kromberg & Schubert, Prettl, SEBN and Japan's Yazaki have built up wire harness production sector in Ukraine. In fact, Ukraine supplies nearly 7% of all imports of wire harnesses in the European Union. These wire harness manufacturing sites are among about 22 automotive companies that have invested more than $600 million in 38 plants and employing over 60,000 Ukrainians.

The western part of Ukraine bordering Poland was a relatively safe haven in the conflict until now. However, today's missile strike in the Lviv region has upended the situation. This morning (18th March) several missiles had struck an aircraft repair plant at the airport complex in Lviv, destroying the buildings. 

While several manufacturers preempted the situation due to rising hostilities and had moved high volume production of parts for vehicles out of the Ukrainian plants to other locations, it wasn't an easy transition. The factory space, machinery, tooling, workers and financing requirements are going to add a fair amount of lead time to be up and running. Automakers will have to find short and medium term solutions. As of this writing, the Volkswagen Group was trying to boost production of wire harnesses in neighboring locations in Europe and North Africa such as Romania, Hungary, Tunisia and Morocco, but also in farther locations such as Mexico and China.

Data: CRU

S&P Global Mobility downgraded its 2022 and 2023 global light vehicle production forecast to to 81.6 million for 2022 and 88.5 million units for 2023. These figures are 2.6 million units lower for both years than previous year. The European forecasts are expected to be 1.7 million units lower with almost 50% of the figure resulting due to part shortages of chips and wire harnesses. The remaining 50% would be due to reduced demand from Russia and Ukraine. European automakers such as Volkswagen, Porsche, BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz have suspended production at some of their plants. Since Ukrainian wire harnesses constitute almost 45% of imports in German and Poland, German automakers are particularly going to be affected due to this crisis and the profit margins are going to witness a squeeze. 

This is a reversal of the trend that we were seeing in January and February. According to LMC Automotive, the selling rate in Germany had improved slightly in February to 2.7 mn units/year from 2.6 mn units/year previously. Similar trends were visible in other European markets. However, although LMC anticipates the 2022 annualized selling rate to improve over the course of 2022, it will grow at a slower rate than forecasted last month due to the current conflict. This is due to supply disruption, inflationary pressure and lowering of consumer confidence. 

Source: LMC Automotive 

US auto industry will also not be immune to this supply disruption. According to S&P Global Mobility North America light-duty vehicle production will be reduced by 480,000 units in 2022 and by 549,000 units in 2023. According to the company there will be a shortage of nearly 25 million units of global light-duty vehicle production from its forecast between now and 2030.

Condensing the time-line of developing vaccine - Some scenarios

Here are some key points from an interesting opinion piece published in the New York Times.

Assuming we already know Corona virus, vaccine is expected to be ready by May 2036 if no strategies for shortening the time-line is taken:

If we don’t wait for academic research, vaccine can be made available by August 2034:

 

If we rely on work from studying SARS and MERS to shorten preparations before clinical trials and start trials early, vaccine can be made available by January 2034:

If we don’t wait for academic research and start trials early, vaccine can be made available by April 2032:

Neither of these scenarios seem to help the prevailing situation. Hence, there is a need to move at “pandemic-speed” and put all the existing drug discovery work that is underway that relate to Covid-19. There are at least 254 therapies and 95 vaccines related to Covid-19 being explored.

It is important to recognize that less than 10 percent of drugs that enter clinical trials are ever approved by the Food and Drug Administration. The rest are either not effective, don’t perform better than existing drugs or have too many side effects.

Typically, vaccine development process takes a decade or longer.

Since the virus that causes Covid-19, are roughly 80 percent identical to the ones causing SARS, and given that both use so-called spike proteins to grab onto a specific receptor found on cells in human lungs, there has been some head start with regards to research. 

Here are some additional options to shorten the timeline (even earlier than April 2032):

By going with ‘pandemic speed’ time-line and starting subsequent steps before previous phases are completed, vaccine can be made available by July 2030:

By moving more swiftly to Phase 3 trials by combining phases, vaccine can be made available by January 2030:

If the decision is made to go with emergency provisioning, i.e. vaccinating front-line and essential workers early, vaccine can be made available by December 2030:

If the three above-mentioned strategies are adopted (i.e. moving at 'pandemic-speed’ timeline, pushing to large-scale testing sooner, and using emergency provisions), vaccine can be made available to front-line and essential workers by February 2028 and to everyone else by June 2029.

Along with the above mentioned steps, if we take a bet on a successful mRNA vaccine, this experimental technology may be faster to produce than traditional vaccines and the vaccine can be made available by February 2028.

 

Unfortunately, none of these scenarios can make the vaccine available in 12 to 18 months time horizon.

The risks and difficulties of fast-tracking vaccine research are huge ranging from the fact that poorly researched vaccines can actually makes it easier to catch the virus, or makes the disease worse after someone’s infected. Researchers also can’t easily infect vaccinated participants with the coronavirus to see how the body behaves. They normally wait until some volunteers contract the virus naturally. That means dosing people in regions hit hardest by the virus, like New York, or vaccinating family members of an infected person to see if they get the virus next. If the pandemic subsides, this step could be slowed.

As can be seen the longest time in the fastest scenario illustrated above is taken by supply chain activities such as building factories and manufacturing. If factories can be built now and manufacture can begin early, anticipating that factories will be useful for a future vaccine and that the product will clear regulatory hurdles, the timeline can be brought down from June 2029 (without taking a bet on the mRNA vaccine) to October 2023:

Finally if we can start building factories now and can bet on mRNA vaccine, vaccine can be made available by June 2022:

Finally fast tracking federal approval from one year to six months can further bring down the time and make the vaccine available by December 2021:

Source: Thompson, S.A. 2020. How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take? New York Times, April 30, 2020

Smart shopping based on your DNA

Smart shopping.

📕 Read more: https://t.co/SPQMERhB1i pic.twitter.com/cHyVKfkg34

— World Economic Forum (@wef) November 16, 2019

Transparency in Conagra’s food supply chain

Conagra, the manufacturer for Healthy Choice and Slim Jim, refuses to phase out the most abusive practices to chickens in their supply chain.@TheHumaneLeague demands @ConagraBrands do better for chickens. https://t.co/TOkTIKCy9s

— Change.org (@Change) August 19, 2019

Amphibious vehicle for humanitarian relief

In a sudden-onset emergency, World Food Program uses an amphibious truck that looks like a tank with inflatable wheels. It is called a Sherp — a name that suggests the fortitude of one who scales Mt. Everest loaded with a pack.

After field-testing two Sherps in the Democratic Republic of Congo and three in South Sudan in 2018, WFP included two of the Ukraine-made vehicles in the response to Cyclone Idai in Mozambique. Before the Sherp could proceed, however, crucial navigational information is needed. Sherps can’t climb a vertical wall, so the driver needs to know where the slopes tapered off. It is important to avoid rapids. A drone is used to get a bird’s eye view of the area.

Images from the drone are broadcast onto the phone screen of the pilot driving the vehicle, so he could ‘see’ past the tree tops and the swamp, and is able to navigate the area. 

In 48 hours, 26 metric tons of food were moved into Buzi, one ton at a time, the drone leading the Sherp across the unpredictable river.

Once the operation in Buzi was completed, the amphibious vehicles were moved back to Beira, ready to assist in the next flooded area. With two Sherps warehoused in the Southern Africa region, WFP and the Mozambique National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) now have more cost-saving options for reaching stranded populations.

Source: The humanitarian monster truck. By Tej Rae

Nature is a powerful genetic resource

From natural ingredients like marula oil & African sandalwood in cosmetics & perfume to plant-based medicine, nature is a powerful genetic resource. Our case studies 🔎 🌿 innovations in 27 countries which benefit the whole world: https://t.co/F98IBDYcVJ #NewDealForNature pic.twitter.com/H43DKG29up

— UN Development (@UNDP) February 17, 2019

Five young Africans are revolutionizing agriculture and medicine with their inventions.

Five young Africans are revolutionizing agriculture and medicine with their inventions. https://t.co/PFxVvbQw5u

— CARE (care.org) (@CARE) January 5, 2019

Design and Technological Innovation - The North American International Auto Show 2018

Sharing some of the stunning models and technological innovations at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit...

Digital maturity and lessons to improve digital performance

Based on an in-depth diagnostic survey of 150 companies around the world and evaluation of 18 practices related to digital strategy, capabilities, and culture, McKinsey has developed a single, simple metric for the digital maturity of a company, which the authors of a study refer to as Digital Quotient. The findings show a wide variance in the digital quotient of firms:

The authors offer the following directions for improving the digital quotient:

 

1) Firms should think carefully about the strategic options. The authors state that, "The number of companies that can operate as pure-play disrupters at global scale—such as Spotify, Square, and Uber—are few in number. Rarer still are the ecosystem shapers that set de facto standards and gain command of the universal control points created by hyperscaling digital platforms. Ninety-five to 99 percent of incumbent companies must choose a different path, not by “doing digital” on the margin of their established businesses but by wholeheartedly committing themselves to a clear strategy."

2) Firms should invest in relevant digital capabilities that are well aligned with strategy—and to do so at scale. It helps in keeping pace with customer expectations. 

3) In addition to technical capabilities such as big data analytics, digital content management, and search engine optimization, a strong and adaptive culture is important.

4) Firms should align organizational structures, talent development, funding mechanisms, and key performance indicators (KPIs) with their digital strategy.

 

 

Source: Tanguy Catlin, Jay Scanlan, and Paul Willmott, 2015. Raising your digital quotient. McKinsey Quarterly, August 2015.